Thursday, 21 July 2011
Prediction: PCs form Majority
die down by election day and that the Federal Liberals would remain in Opposition. We all know how that turned out - the Federal NDP formed the Official Opposition for the first time in the party's history and Canadian politics may very well be realigned for years to come.
Nevertheless, I still think I'm warranted in being pessimistic about the Manitoba NDP's chances. While getting an NHL team has temporarily spiked the Provincial NDP's poll numbers, this'll fizzle down by election day. Given the recent escalation in gang activity, the Tories will make hay with the crude yet effective tactic of painting the NDP as "soft on crime"*. Given the distorting First Past the Post system (which increased the NDP's majority in the legislature in 2007 despite a decline in their popular vote) I suspect the PCs will get a manufactured majority as blue Liberals switch over to McFadyen, not unlike what happened federally in Ontario.
This will, of course, be bad news for the province as McFadyen fully buys into this "deficit needs to be eliminated NOW" mantra. Austerity measures will be enacted and consumer demand will fall like leaves in fall.
*Ironically, the PCs may have a point. The Manitoba NDP hasn't dealt with social inequality in this province nearly enough, so of course social problems (like criminal activities) will be on the rise. Even more ironically, however, is that the demand-killing, equality ignoring Tories make things worse.