Monday, 2 July 2012

More Winnipeg seats winnable for the NDP next election

Sub-regional breakdown of an Environics poll.

Image from ThreeHundredEight.com
Various polls about federal voting intentions for the different regions of Canada always lump Manitoba and Saskatchewan together, usually under the label "prairies". Depending on the poll, the CONS might be ahead gigantically, slightly ahead, or in a statistical tie with the NDP. An answer to the question of interest for Manitobans - What's the picture like just in our province? - has been hard to come by.

308 has obtained a "sub-regional  breakdown" from Environics, at last providing answers. Saskatchewan is indeed dark blue country, but the NDP is competitive with the CONS here.

Manitoba federal NDP support, outside of the Northern Churchill riding, is likely concentrated in the city of Winnipeg. This means that a few seats, like Elmwood-Transcona or maybe even Saint Boniface, could swing orange next election. This means that Manitoba, while not seat rich, could be the site of some intense campaigning given it's "battleground" status.

Look forward to leaflets, ads, and photo-ops, because Winnipeggers will be of interest to campaign tacticians.

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