Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Right on, Leger Marketing
|Democratic Socialist CCF appealing|
to the prairies with a leftwing populist
message during the middle of the 20th
Image Source: Next Year Country
Leger Marketing, a few months after the EKOS survey, conducted their own survey with an ideological self-identification component. The Leger Marketing survey gave the options of "Left wing", "Centre-left", "Centre", "Centre-right", "Right wing", and "Don't Know". This, especially alongside the EKOS survey, is a very useful tool for making educated guesses about the political psyche of the prairies.
Like the EKOS survey, the Leger Marketing Survey offered regional breakdowns. At least according to the the release I've linked to, Leger Marketing hasn't broken down ideological self-positioning by other measures (partisanship, gender, age) like EKOS did.
The margin of error (MOE) for Manitoba/Saskatchewan isn't given in the Leger Survey. For 1, 506 respondents the MOE is 2.5% and the sample size for MB/SK is 125, so I'd assume it's big like the EKOS survey, a good 8-10%. Results should be taken with a considerable spoonful of salt.
With all warnings obligatorily given, let's dive in.
|Results from EKOS and Leger Marketing surveys compared, click to make larger.|
When given the option of the "centre" it looks like many respondents hover there. Over a third of people in the MB/SK choose the centre, showing that our region has the greatest portion of centrists in all of Canada. The total right is greater than the total left, but is nothing like the whopping 54 to 23 gap in the EKOS poll for small-c conservatives vs small-l liberals.
Also interestingly, it seems that the centre-left and centre-right are rather evenly matched, allowing for a competitive fight between left-leaning and right-leaning parties come election time.
|Percentage of respondents in each ideological category|
according to the Leger Marketing Survey.
The prefix free "left wing" (3%) still is smaller than the prefix free "right wing" (8%), but a high MOE should make us weary of interpreting too much into this.
All in all, a rather interesting look at the two prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. It indicates a rather centre-hugging electorate, with enough centre-left and centre-right voters to make elections competitive. Which is exactly what we see tend to see, "NDP dynasty" talk aside.
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