Monday, 17 September 2012
MLA Brian Pallister, second place Axeworthy
The Charleswood resident, as expected, won the Tory stronghold in southwestern Winnipeg (one of the few safe places for provincial Conservatives within the city).
The big surprise was the stunning rise in Liberal fortunes, with Bob Axeworthy (coming from a family with a big name in politics) as runner up to the Tory winner, a role the NDP's played until now.
|Chart of candidates and parities in the Fort Whyte 2012 by-election. An independent fringe candidate accused of crimes that received 0.29% of the vote is not included in this chart. Click on image for larger image.|
All data derived from sources from Elections Manitoba except change data, which was obtained from Wikipedia.
Chart constructed by The Analyst.
41.64% of eligible voters turned out for this by-election. The riding's turnout for the 2011 provincial election was 61.91%. The discrepancy is a giant 20.27 pp, but by-elections typically draw substantially less voters than regular elections.
Axeworthy ran a strong campaign, his theme of "I'm the only candidate from this riding" serving as a particularly potent talking point. Manitoba Liberals did much to stress the point.
|Graphical representation of the results.|
"Share of the vote" is percentage of the total vote.
Image constructed by "The Analyst"
I can't help but wonder whether the "I'm from this ridding" frame will help the Liberals in the long run, though. If The Manitoba Liberals ever decided to run Bob Axeworthy in a winnable riding or if one of their Name on Ballot candidates turns out to be from another riding, the media and other parties could make a lot of hay out of it.
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